Playa Carmen seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (December - March)
The year at Playa Carmen follows the rhythm of the tropical dry and wet seasons rather than the traditional four-season calendar. From December through March, strong winter high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico helps drive the northeast trade wind regime through the gaps of Central America. This produces offshore N, NNE, NE and ENE flow for a southwest-facing beach, which is exactly what Playa Carmen needs to stay clean. At the same time, the South Pacific is still sending consistent SSW and SW groundswell in the 3-4ft (0.9-1.2m) range with long 12.5-13.6s periods. The result is the most reliable window of the year for glassy, rippable surf.
Fair Surf Season (April - May & October - November)
In the shoulder seasons, the average swell size climbs toward 4-5ft (1.2-1.5m) and periods push into the 14s as the Southern Hemisphere storm track becomes more active. But the wind becomes less cooperative. April and May see the northeast trades weakening and the ITCZ beginning to drift north, while October and November are the messy tail end of the wet season. Ideal offshore wind percentages drop to between 34 and 51%, so there are fewer clean days. Still, when the wind aligns, the bigger SSW/SW swells make Playa Carmen a much more powerful, occasionally pumping beach.
Low Surf Season (June - September)
June through September is the annual low season in terms of rideable quality, even though the raw swell height actually peaks at around 5ft (1.5m). The Southern Hemisphere winter produces a steady conveyor belt of SSW and SW groundswell, but the ITCZ sits right overhead, dragging in onshore SW and SSW winds, torrential daily rain, and generally lumpy conditions. With ideal offshore winds down to between 30 and 43%, the surface is often bumpy or crossed-up. These months are for patient locals and visiting pros who can find the brief windows when a tropical wave passes and the wind briefly shifts offshore.