Troncones • Statistics for September

September: The Wildcard - Tropical Systems and XL Potential

September is the climatological peak of the East Pacific hurricane season and it is the biggest month of the year for average swell height at 1.7m (5.6ft). The period is still a solid 13.0s. Swell direction is a touch more SW-influenced than mid-summer: SSW 58.9%, S 19.6%, SW 14.0%. More importantly, September carries the highest percentage of storm swell in the 2-2.5m (6.5-8ft) category - 13.5% of the total - plus the only measurable >2.5m (8ft+) energy of the year. If a hurricane aligns with the window, Troncones can go XL in a hurry.

But the tropical atmosphere is also at its messiest. Rainfall maxes out at 7.65 mm/day, water temp remains toasty at 30.1°C, and SE/SSE wind frequencies are prominent (SE 14.2%, SSE 9.5%). Ideal winds are just 36%. You are chasing a wildcard: massive, powerful, possibly unruly SSW/SW groundswell sandwiched between squalls and onshore winds. Watch the storm tracks and wind forecasts carefully; when the angles and timing align, this is the month that can serve up the heaviest, most charging waves of the year at Troncones.