Cayo Coco • Statistics for September

September: Hurricane Swell is the Main Hope

September is still part of the low surf season at Cayo Coco, but it is also the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Average wave height remains tiny at 1.6ft (0.5m) and period is 2.9s - the shortest of the year - so the background windswell is almost completely inconsequential. E and ENE swells combine for about 73% of the spectrum, while the optimal N/NNW/NW quadrant sits near 2%. Trade winds continue to dominate, with E/ENE around 50%, but there is a slightly higher share of light-to-moderate winds and occasional southwesterly flow as tropical systems pass. That is when things can change in a hurry: a hurricane or tropical storm moving north of Cuba can generate substantial N or NW groundswell, and the right quadrant can deliver offshore S/SW winds. These windows are short, chaotic, and often come with huge amounts of rainfall - September averages 4.03mm/day, the wettest month in the data - but they provide the most realistic chance of any sizeable surf. Air temperature averages 28.9°C and water temperature climbs to 29.3°C.