Cozumel seasonal overview
Best Surf Season (November - March)
Cozumel is a spot with a serious identity crisis: the island is blessed with an open SE-facing coastline and a steady supply of E/ESE/SE swell, yet the same tropical trade-wind machine that sends those waves in also blows straight onshore for most of the year. The best window is November through March, when the first winter cold fronts ('Nortes') occasionally push all the way south into the Yucatan Channel. Behind the front, winds clock into the W/NW/NNW quadrant and you finally get a few hours of clean, groomed surf on the SE side. Average heights sit around 2.3-2.6ft (0.7-0.8m) with average periods in the 6-second range - enough for shortboard groveling on a good day, but nothing to call home about. If you chase this island, this is the season when the rare offshore wind lines up with rideable swell.
Fair Surf Season (April - May & October)
The transition months are a game of inches. April and May see swell output still dominated by ESE and SE directions, with a few 3-5ft (1-1.5m) pulses sneaking in from tropical waves. But the wind is almost always pinned in the E-ESE quadrant at 12-18mph (20-30kph), so surface conditions are often bumpy and lumpy. October is the autumn mirror-image: the trade winds start to ease off, and ESE/ENE swell mixes with the first hints of winter NNW wind events. Ideal wind still only occurs around 1-3% of the time, so if you score a clean hour, count your blessings.
Low Surf Season (June - September)
Summer is the doldrums. Average swell height drops to 2ft (0.6m) and the wind rose becomes monochromatic: E/ESE/SE trade winds blow 12-18mph (20-30kph) for weeks on end, making conditions choppy and disjointed. The wave period hovers in the 5.9-6.8s range, which is marginal for any kind of quality. Rising air and water temps - water climbs to 29.5°C - plus daily rains and tropical waves keep the surf mushy. The only exception is the odd hurricane kick in the western Caribbean, which can pump out larger ESE/SE swell, but that usually arrives with fierce onshore winds and serious local hazards. For most surfers, this is a rest period for the island's reef passes, not a destination storm chase.