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Conditions at Cozumel in October
October: Autumn Hand-Off, Winds Begin to Turn
October is the hinge between the summer doldrums and the winter window. Average swell height is still modest at 2ft (0.6m), and the period remains short at 5.9s, but the swell direction distribution begins to broaden: ESE (29.5%) and E (26.7%) are joined by a much healthier ENE (16.8%), NE (9.2%) and even a few N/NNE pulses (5.7% combined). This is the first sign that cold-front-driven swell is starting to reach into the Caribbean. The wind rose also changes character, with ENE (19.5%), NE (17.4%), E (17.1%) and ESE (12.4%) all present. The NNW fraction climbs to 5.3%, and the ideal offshore wind score improves to 2%. However, October is also the wettest month on average, with 0.26in/day (6.62mm/day) of rain, and water temp is still high at 29.2°C. The surf is inconsistent, but the occasional cold-front outflow can bring clean, waist-high runners with actual offshore texture - a true gold-dust window before the winter pick-up.
Average Spot conditions at Cozumel in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Cozumel during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Cozumel for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Cozumel for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Cozumel.