Turtle Head • Statistics for September

September: A Crossroads of Monsoon Energy

September is the great transition month. The northeast monsoon is beginning to reassert itself while the southwest monsoon is still trying to hold on. The average swell height is a respectable 1.2m (4ft) with a period of 7.5 seconds. The swell distribution is a true mixture: NNE (20.3 percent) and NE (7.6 percent) are back on the board, but SW (20.5 percent), WSW (11.8 percent), SSW (6.3 percent) and W (4.6 percent) still contribute - plus a noteworthy NNW (10.0 percent) component from early cold fronts pushing into the South China Sea. This mix means Turtle Head can see waves from multiple directions in the same week, and the ones from the west-southwest will have more push at the spots that catch that angle.

Winds become more favorable as the monsoon flips. Ideal wind is up to 40 percent, with a growing ENE (7.7 percent) and NNE (6.0 percent) component and a declining S/SSW (14.4 percent and 12.4 percent). The water is still warm at 29.7°C (air 26.3°C), and rainfall remains high at 11.90 mm/day. While September is not yet the crown jewel of the season, it offers real potential: when a late-season typhoon generates a solid SW-W groundswell and the new north-easterly trade winds scour the surface offshore, you can get excellent, clean southwest swell at Turtle Head. Watch the forecast carefully; the anomalies are the ones that pay.