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Conditions at Rincon Point in October
October: The North Pacific Reawakening
October is when the North Pacific storm track begins to stir and Rincon starts feeling the shift. Average swell height is still a modest 3ft (0.9m), but the period jumps to 11.9s, signaling longer-period and more powerful energy. The swell direction is still predominantly W at 49.4% and WSW at 24.3%, with the southern window at around 7.6% - mostly SW at 6.6%. The wind regime improves dramatically: ideal offshore days rise to 31%, and N/NNW flow becomes more common. This is the month when the combination of long-period swell and offshore wind can suddenly make the point look like winter again.
October brings mild fall weather with average air temperature 17.6°C, water temperature 16.6°C, and precipitation still low at 0.56 mm/day. The first serious fall low pressures deliver the first real pulses of long-period groundswell, making this a key shoulder month for keen surfers.
Average Spot conditions at Rincon Point in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Rincon Point during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Rincon Point for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Rincon Point for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Rincon Point.