Conditions at Waimea in October
October: Winter Awakens
October brings the first genuine surge of the new season. Average swell height jumps to 6.6ft (2.0m) and average period climbs to 10.7s, signaling more powerful groundswell. The swell rose still shows plenty of ENE (25.1%) and NE (21.5%), but the winter signal is clear: NNW jumps to 14.5%, NNE to 14.8%, and N to 7.1%. This mix means the bay starts receiving longer-period energy from the optimal northwest and central-north Pacific fetch, often with the warm air still in place. The distribution is concentrated in the 5-8ft (1.5-2.5m) classes, with occasional XXL pulses. Winds remain trade-dominated - E at 37.2%, ENE at 35.2% - and ideal offshore wind windows reach 28%, the highest since January. Water temp is warm at 26.5°C, air temp averages 25.8°C, and rain increases slightly to 1.83mm/day. October is the season opener; when it lines up, the bay is already serious.
Average Spot conditions at Waimea in October
Swell history for October
Wind history for October
Swell quality
Analyze the groundswell consistency at Waimea during October. Based on historical data, there is a % probability of groundswell occurring this month. The chart below provides a detailed breakdown of the average wave height distribution, offering deep insights into the swell quality and surf potential you can expect at Waimea for your next trip in October.
Ground swell
Ground swell by size
Wind conditions
Evaluate the wind and swell alignment at Waimea for October. Our analysis shows that favorable offshore or side-shore winds coincide with surfable swell approximately % of the time. The accompanying graph illustrates the average size distribution of waves during these optimal wind windows at Waimea.