Outer Kom • Statistics for January

January: The Cape Doctor vs. The South Swell

January is peak Cape summer, and Outer Kom is caught between a solid south-southwest groundswell and a relentless southeast gale. The average wave height is a healthy 7.5ft (2.3m) with a period of 11.1s, placing most energy in the powerful long-period class. Directionally, SW swell leads with 27.6 percent, followed by SSW at 17.8 percent and S at 10.6 percent; only 6.7 percent arrives from the more favourable WSW. That means much of the energy is angled for the west-facing reef rather than hitting it dead-on.

The wind story is even more important. SE wind appears 25.5 percent of the time and SSE 27.0 percent, but these are usually strong bits of the Cape Doctor, with 30-50kph speeds dominating. Although SE is technically an offshore direction, at those speeds it creates a messy, lumpy surface. Combined with an ideal-window rate of just 7 percent, surfers need to cherry-pick days, usually at first light before the wind screams. Air temps average 20.0°C, water temp is 18.2°C, and rainfall is minimal, so it is warm, but far from world-class.